Here are some key points from Westpac’s CPI forecast, saying “June’s CPI does not close the door to interest rate cuts”:
- Westpac Banking Corporation confirmed its June quarter CPI forecast of 1.0% quarterly and 3.8% annualized. The forecasts were first released on 18 June and remained unchanged in its update on 2 July.
- Our trimmed mean forecast also remains unchanged at 0.9%qtr/4.0%yr.
- For June, we are forecasting an increase of 0.3% for the month, with the annual pace expected to ease to 3.5% annualized in June from 4.0% annualized in May (it was 3.6% annualized in early July). June brings important updates on several services, including rates and property charges, water and sewer, child care, dental services, veterinary and other services for pets, and other financial services.
- As Australia’s chief economist Lucy Ellis recently put it, “Australia is not that special a country” and so Australia is unlikely to move against the global forces of disinflation.
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June and quarterly CPI figures are due from Australia on July 31st.
The RBA meets next week on August 5th and 6th.