China’s exports continued to decline in October, underscoring persistent weakness in external demand and growing uncertainty about the fragile overall economic recovery, while imports surprised markets by rebounding to growth.
Exports in October fell for the sixth straight month, dropping 6.4% year-on-year to US$274.8 billion, the General Administration of Customs said on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, imports rose 3% last month to $218.3 billion, up from a 6.2% decline in September and beating Wind Company’s forecast for a 4.7% decline.
“Export statistics indicate uncertainty about the recovery in external demand,” said Xu Tiancheng, an economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
“increase [in imports] This could signal a recovery in domestic demand, but the recovery will be gradual as the exchange rate depreciation will prevent a surge in imports. ”
In the first 10 months of this year, soybean imports increased by 14.6% year-on-year in terms of volume, while crude oil imports increased by 14.4% and coal purchases surged by 66.8% over the same period.
China’s total trade surplus in October was $56.5 billion, down from $77.71 billion in September.
“Export growth remained weak as economic momentum in the US and Europe slowed. External demand is likely to weaken further in the next six months,” said Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. Ta.
“China needs to rely more on domestic demand to drive growth. The acceleration in import growth is a positive surprise. It is not clear whether this rebound in imports indicates an improvement in domestic demand.
“Other data points, such as retail sales, also need to be monitored. Nevertheless, domestic demand is likely to recover in the coming months as fiscal policy turns more aggressive.”