WASHINGTON, Sept 25 (Reuters) – The publication of key U.S. economic data, including employment and inflation reports that are crucial to policymakers and investors, will be suspended indefinitely if the federal government shuts down this weekend due to a lack of funding. A government official said.
Reporting across all government agencies such as the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will be suspended, leaving Fed policymakers, investors, businesses, and the private sector. Ordinary Americans are in the dark as they make key decisions.
Congress has so far failed to pass any spending bills to fund federal agency programs in the fiscal year that begins on October 1 amid discord within the Republican Party. Leaders of the Republican-dominated US House of Representatives are set to try to push through sharp spending cuts this week that have no chance of becoming law, raising the prospect of a shutdown on Sunday.
“Over a period of time, the BLS will cease all program operations and release only the complete data scheduled to be released as part of managed shutdown activities,” a Biden administration official said in response to questions from Reuters. “As a result, the September jobs report and CPI will not be released.”
The Labor Department is currently scheduled to release its next monthly employment report on October 6. The Consumer Price Index report is scheduled to be released on October 12.
This approach is a change from the last government shutdown between December 2018 and January 2019, which did not affect the Department of Labor and allowed the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Employment and Training Administration to continue publishing data. This means that weekly unemployment insurance claims data will also not be published during any shutdown this time around.
“Most of the services provided by the Census Bureau will cease, including the production of economic census data, the production of economic indicators, and work on the American Community Survey,” the official said.
This means a delay in the release of key data, including retail sales, housing starts and new home sales reports for September. Depending on the duration of the lockdown, the release of the first estimate of third-quarter GDP scheduled for late October may also be delayed.
September reports for durable goods orders, advanced economic indicators, consumer spending, income and key inflation data that Fed officials are closely monitoring are also likely to be affected.
The data blackout will come at a critical juncture for Fed officials, who chose not to raise interest rates last week but remained poised to take further action if necessary to rein in inflation.
As a self-financing agency, the Fed will continue to issue statements, policy statements, and other reports. The US central bank is scheduled to release the minutes of its September 19-20 policy meeting on October 11.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Edited by Dan Burns and Paul Simao
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